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Estimated Due Dates

Estimated Due Dates

An easy way to calculate when your new baby is due to arrive is by using Naegele's Rule.  You take the first day of your last normal menstrual period (LNMP) and add 7 days to it, then subtract 3 months and add a year.  This is assuming that the average length of your menstural cycle is around 28 days.  To compensate for longer or short cycles, just add or subtract the number of days your cycle differs from the standard 28 day cycle.  For example, if you typically have a 31 day cycle, add 3 days to your "due date" and if you normally have a 26 day cycle, subtract 2 days from the "due date."   Your estimated due date (EDD) is plus or minus 2 weeks from that date.  So, really, your "due date" is really a "due month."  Babies come in their own time and every woman's body has its own unique way of growing a baby.  Some babies are born at 40 weeks, some at 36 weeks, and other at 44 weeks, and all of them are completely normal and healthy. 

Click here to access the "Online Pregnancy Calendar" to find out when your Estimated Due Date is.

Prematurity occurs when a baby is born before its lungs and organs are fully mature and capable of functioning on their own.  This could be at 28 weeks gestation or even 38 weeks gestation.  A "Pre-Term" infant is one born before they are considered "full-term" which occurs at the end of the 37th week of pregnancy.  A baby may be born premature but not pre-term, i.e. the 38 weeker with the immature lungs.  Or, a baby may likewise be born pre-term, but not premature, i.e. the 36 weeker who can breathe and function on their own.

Postmaturity is a rare condition which is characterized by a baby whose gestation exceeds 42 weeks, skin is wrinkled and/or peeling, loses body fat due to declining placental function, has long finger and toe nails and a significantly decreased amniotic fluid volume (again, due to an aging placenta).  If a baby gestates to 43 weeks, it is possible to not show any signs of postmaturity.  As long as the baby remains healthy and placental function is adequate, there is no need to induce labor.  The baby will be born when it is ready, much like an apple ripening on a tree.  I have read stories of women who have given birth at 46 weeks without incident.  It seems like women (and doctors) are more impatient these days.  Despite the very small percentage of infants who can be classified as truly "postmature," obstetricians and midwives will seldom "allow" a pregnant woman to go beyond 41 weeks gestation, even if all appears to be going well in the pregnancy and if the women has previously given birth beyond 40 weeks gestation.

The bottom line is this: women and babies develop and grow in their own time and in their own way.  Babies don't come stamped with a "Best By" date on their bottoms.  We need to trust in nature's perfect plan and timing for pregnancy and birth. 


Estimating the Estimated Due Date
by Trina Hampton

"I'm due on May 27th!" I was told enthusiastically by a friend who just found out she was pregnant. It took more than a little effort to mask my cringe and share the joy of my friend. Little did she know that within hours of her positive pregnancy test, she had already given into one of the biggest misnomers of pregnancy - the "due date" also referred to as the E.D.D. for Estimated Due Date. This is the very first thing to be determined once a pregnancy has been confirmed. On the outset, this seems to be a reasonable practice. Parents want to know when to expect their baby, and health care providers need to have a time line with which to measure the baby's growth and well being. However, obstetric management today seems to have overlooked the estimated portion of the E.D.D. As I will discuss, focusing on an E.D.D. is one of the first things that will set a woman up for often unnecessary fetal well being tests, unnecessary induction, and the increased potential for serious risks during childbirth.

One of the first things that will make an E.D.D. inaccurate is the very method in which it is calculated. Naegele's Rule is the method that is nearly universally used in the United States. Dr. Naegele, who practiced in Germany in the 1850's, determined that pregnancy that lasted 10 lunar months. His calculation assumed pregnancy lasted around 280 days from the first day of the last menstrual period (or 266 days from ovulation - day 14). This very method is faulty on at least two points. One; his method was not based on any scientific fact, only his personal observations within his own practice. Two; few women have textbook cycles being 28 days long, with ovulation on day 14. A more recent and thorough study (Mittendorf 1990) found that pregnancy will last closer to 274 days. Reading further into this study also shows us that multiparas (women with one or more live births) and non-white mothers will have pregnancies lasting closer to 269 days. This shows us that Naegele's Rule establishes a due date that is a full 3-8 days shorter than what more recent and reliable studies show us to be more accurate. It does seem odd to rely on a method that is 150 years old.

Another reason that the traditional calculation for the E.D.D. is inaccurate is the assumption that ovulation, and therefore assumed conception, always occurs on day 14 of the cycle. Few women and surprisingly few health care providers understand the finer points involved in the conception process. Ovulation can take place as early as the 7th day, or as late as the 20th-30th day of a cycle, and in some cases even earlier or later than that. Actual conception does not necessarily occur on the day of insemination either. Healthy sperm can survive for up to five days in fertile quality cervical fluid. If this is the case, then this adds another potential week into the estimate. Suppose a woman's ovulation gets postponed because of a stressful event or perhaps because of coming off the birth control pill. If ovulation takes place on the 37th day of that cycle, and she conceives at that time, her E.D.D. would be off by a full three weeks. In this situation, a health care provider may have concern that the baby is small for gestational age (SGA.) This assertion can lead to Biological Profile Tests, concern about placental function, and finally the induction of a baby thought to be developing improperly. All of these carry potential risks and all of this because the baby was conceived three weeks later than traditional thinking allowed for. Unfortunately, not many women know when they ovulate. This can be determined during her monthly cycle by practicing a temperature charting method of birth control, such as the Fertility Awareness Method (FAM.)

Ultrasound measurements are also used for determining or confirming a due date. Early cell generation occurs at roughly the same speed. All embryos develop at about the same rate until around 6-8 weeks gestation. Beyond that time frame, individual genetics set in and the fetus will grow at its own rate for the rest of its life. An ultrasound performed in the first trimester, measuring the skull size, femur length and crown to rump length will be the most accurate for confirming a due date. However, most ultrasounds are usually done at 16-20 weeks gestation to better facilitate examination of major organs and determine the gender. The later in pregnancy an ultrasound is done, the less accurate the measurements become. There is always a variable within 10 days of the last menstrual period dating and this should not change unless ultrasound measuring is off by more than at least 14 days. As with all mechanical procedures, accuracy is dependant upon the skill of the clinician, the equipment being used and interpretation of the readings. Ultrasounds done after 30 weeks are much less reliable for fetal size and should not be considered for estimating gestational age.

The mere thinking that there is one magical day that pregnancy should end, and every other day is either early or late is the largest falsehood of all. It is also the most prevalent. No matter how often we are told that the baby can come "any time 2 weeks either way" still seems to get forgotten in the end. A healthy baby born 1 week 'late' isn't necessarily late, it comes precisely when it's ready to be born.

The human body, both the mother's and the baby's, grow and develop in their own time. No doctor in the world can predict when a baby will crawl or walk or get his first tooth, so it is beyond reason to think that a doctor can predict the very day a woman should go into labor. Now you may not find a doctor who will outright say that they expect a baby to be born on the assigned date of delivery, but it's not at all hard to find a doctor that suggests induction within days passing it. This is an outright indication that a doctor does believe in the soundness of a due date.

We have become comfortable telling moms that a baby born anytime after 36-37 weeks gestation can be expected to be healthy. Unfortunately at the end of an uncomfortable pregnancy, most women are all too eager to hope for a birth soon after that. She has little tolerance for waiting another 4-6 weeks for labor to begin spontaneously. There is no time in our society when being late is acceptable. We are a people who need to be scheduled and organized. This puts unnecessary guilt on a mother who begins to feel as though she's inconveniencing the people around her by making them wait. This guilt leads to insecurity, and is what undermines a woman's confidence making her request or accept an induction for convenience.

The most important thing is for women to embrace the idea that her baby can come at anytime during the last weeks of pregnancy. Birth professionals can promote this by displacing the concern that her baby will grow 'too big', inform her that labor pain is easier to cope with when it begins spontaneously, and reassuring her that she is not inconveniencing anyone with the length of her pregnancy. The last days of carrying your baby within you should be cherished.

You may wonder how it worked out for my friend. She was induced a full three weeks before her estimated due date. Her doctor declared after cervical examination that the baby was 'ready' and she never questioned the sudden induction. Thankfully, her small baby was born healthy.

References;
Abstract for "The Length of Uncomplicated Human Gestation" by Mittendorf et al. Obstetrics & Gynecology, V.75, N.6, June 1990
Taking Charge of Your Fertility by Toni Weschler
The Thinking Woman's Guide to a Better Birth by Henci Goer
When is that baby due? by Henci Goer

About the Author:
Trina is a full time mom to son Jace, and is doula and childbirth educator practicing in the West Texas area. Please visit www.baby-yourway.com to learn more about her services.

Due Date

The concept of [a due date] is based on a gestational length established by fiat in the early 1800s. Franz Carl Naegele officially declared that pregnancy lasted 10 lunar months (10 x 28 days), counting from the first day of the last menstrual period). However, when Mittendorf et al. measured the median duration of pregnancy, they found that healthy, white, private-care, primiparous women with well-established due dates averaged 288 days and multiparas averaged 283 days, values significantly different from both Naegele's rule and each other. Others have found similar results. Mittendorf et al. also cited other studies showing racial differences in gestational length. For example, one showed that black women averaged 8.5 days fewer than white women of similar socioeconomic status.

Moreover, ultrasound-determined due dates are not accurate. One study used the date established by ultrasound at 16 to 18 weeks to test the validity of dating by the last normal menstrual period (LNMP). It found that as gestational age went past term, positive predictive values for the LNMP declined from 95% to 12%. The authors took this to mean the LNMP was inaccurate, but, of course, the ultrasound date is the problem. Even first trimester measurements have an error bar of +/- 5 days in the second trimester and +/- 22 days in the third.

Few practitioners appreciate the limitations of ultrasound or clinical data. Otto and Platt say the due date should not be changed unless the discrepancy is more than two weeks, yet they see doctors changing a due date by a few days, no trivial alteration if a woman will be induced when she exceeds a certain date.

Some risk does accrue in healthy postdate pregnancies (notably meconium passage and big babies) but it does not follow that we should induce all women. Studies have found that as gestational age goes from 37 to 44 weeks, perinatal mortality and morbidity distribute in a U-shaped pattern. If we try to eliminate postdate pregnancies on grounds of increased complications, should we not equally logically try to delay labor onset in the early-term group?

- Henci Goer, Obstetric Myths vs. Research Realities, Bergin & Garvey 1994

A prospective study was conducted at a West German US Army Hospital to compare the accuracy of fetal weight estimation by a physician's clinical estimate as compared to ultrasound. One hundred women had Leopold's and vaginal examinations, an estimate was made. Then the same examiner performed an ultrasonic estimation of weight. The exam was done within 48 hours of delivery. The mean error for the clinical estimate was 7.9%. The error by ultrasound was 8.2%. There was no significant statistical difference between the two types of estimates, including for the extremes of birth weight.

- Journal of Reproductive Medicine, Vol. 33 No. 4, April 1988

Wood's method: Carol Wood, Yale nurse-midwifery professor, came up with a method to calculate the due date that takes into account individual variations in the menstrual cycle as well as the effect of a woman's having had previous pregnancies.

1. Add 1 year to the first day of the last menstrual period, then
For first-time mothers, subtract 2 months and 2 weeks
For multiparas, subtract 2 months and 2.5 weeks (18 days)
2. Add or subtract the number of days her cycle varies from 28 days

*1st-time mothers with 28-day cycles: LMP + 12 months - 2 months, 14 days = EDD
*Multiparas with 28-day cycles: LMP + 12 months - 2 months, 18 days = EDD
*For cycles longer than 28 days: EDD + (actual length of cycle - 28 days) = EDD
*For cycles shorter than 28 days: EDD - (28 days - actual length of cycle) = EDD

EDD: Estimated day of delivery
LMP: Last menstrual period

- Anne Frye, Holistic Midwifery Vol. 1, Labrys Press 1995

 

More Information about Estimated Due Dates:

Detailed Paper About Post-Dates
http://www.gentlebirth.org/archives/datesppr.html

The Ten Month Mama Page
http://www.birthlove.com/free/ten_month_mama.html

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